B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 1
August 31, 2023B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 1
Football, we missed you. In fact, that's putting it mildly.
As Week 1 of the college football season grabs the spotlight and our attention spans, I am deeply appreciative of the moment.
We'll get to winning wagers in a moment. Locks of the Week will go on as planned all season long. Before we do, though, we must celebrate the return of the greatest sport on the planet. While we hope our picks are profitable and prosperous, we are just incredibly happy to be here.
Cheers.
Now, onto business. While we love college football, we were reminded that it can pack a punch during Week 0. We went 2-3, which included a mix of good, bad and unfortunate. Before we move to our Week 1 picks, let's highlight the highs and lows from the previous week.
The Good: Jacksonville State (+1) vs. UTEP: It was a nail-biter, but Jacksonville State hung on at the end to earn the outright win. It wasn't easy, but it worked out. Kudos to Rich Rodriguez on a strong start.
The Bad: New Mexico State vs. UMass (Under 45): This one went up in flames in a hurry. After scoring just 23 combined points midway through the third quarter, the scoreboard caught on fire. This one flipped from a winner to a loser almost immediately.
With that out of the way, we're onto our picks.
Fresno State (+4) vs. Purdue
For weeks, this point spread has jumped out. A Big Ten team that has experienced tremendous success in recent memory is only a slight favorite at home against a non-Power Five team being paid over $1 million to make the trip.
Fresno State, however, is not your average Group of Five team. After a rough start in 2022, the Bulldogs closed out the year with nine consecutive wins. Even with many pieces of that team now gone, the offense should be in good hands as quarterback Mikey Keene takes over.
Keene, a transfer, has had success at the collegiate level. Don't be shocked if he explodes onto the scene, starting immediately.
On the topic of change, Purdue has endured plenty. Losing head coach Jeff Brohm was a big blow. Landing transfer QB Hudson Card was a nice addition, although there are still a ton of moving parts on both sides of the ball.
While the natural inclination is to lay the points with the better-known program, we're going the other way. Fresno State has a real shot at an upset in Week 1.
UTSA (-1) vs. Houston
The Group of Five love rolls on.
Yes, the Cougars outlasted UTSA in Week 1 last season, needing three overtimes to do so. They have since joined the Big 12, and expectations will obviously change moving forward.
Despite the change of conference, this feels like an evenly matched tussle. (It's also one of the best games of the weekend that people should be talking about more.)
The fact that UTSA is a slight favorite on the road, speaks to the direction of the program. The centerpiece, of course, is quarterback Frank Harris. He's back for one last ride. Against Houston last year, he accounted for more than 400 yards of offense and scored four touchdowns.
Under Dana Holgorsen, offense has been a theme for Houston. This year, it replaces a lot. Donovan Smith is a capable player at QB, but Harris' star power will take over.
LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State
It's the best game of Week 1, and it's one of the most intriguing matchups of the entire season.
Last year, before the expectations for both grew to what they are now, LSU and Florida State put on a show to begin the year. The Seminoles prevailed in wild fashion, 24-23, although both teams found some enormous, unanticipated success from there.
A year later, both teams have real playoff aspirations. Although the Seminoles enter as one of the most hyped teams in the nation, LSU is immensely talented. I love the Tigers' offensive line, and Jayden Daniels is poised to make the most of another season at the collegiate level.
Florida State QB Jordan Travis is excellent, and the Seminoles have a sudden abundance of future pros on their roster. But LSU still feels like the superior team, even if it's not by much. And Tigers linebacker Harold Perkins is poised to take this game over.
Here's something we can all agree on: No matter where you lean on this particular game, its existence is spectacular.
Washington vs. Boise State (Over 58.5)
With a spread just north of two touchdowns, the oddsmakers aren't expecting this game to be the blowout some likely envision. Many, including this writer, really like Washington. But the Huskies' defense is still a question, and that could result in a plethora of points.
The one certainty is the Washington offense. Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a tremendous year, and his key weapons return. This offense, which finished No. 7 nationally in scoring a season ago, should pick up right where it left off.
The Broncos were a solid defense a season ago, although they lost a lot of snaps. This is not the matchup for new contributors to find rhythm. At the same time, Boise State's running game was excellent, and it returns a lot of pieces.
The Huskies should win this game by double digits, although it won't be as easy as many expect.
Our prediction: Washington 41, Boise State 27.
North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina
Like the game we just discussed, offense will tell the story for these two teams.
North Carolina's 2022 season can be broken up into two parts: The first 10 games and the last four games. The first 10 went much better than the last four, although quarterback Drake Maye was the constant in it all.
South Carolina counters with Spencer Rattler, who was excellent at times last year. The Gamecocks beat Tennessee and Clemson in back-to-back weeks, and they nearly upended Notre Dame in their bowl game.
For as much as we criticized UNC's defense last year—and much of it was deserved—South Carolina's wasn't much better. Throw in Rattler's turnover-prone ways, and I am more than comfortable backing Maye to open up the year as a short favorite.
North Carolina wins an absolute thriller, covering by at least a field goal.
Other Games on the Card
North Texas (+6.5) vs. Cal
As Cal's football future hangs in the balance, it opens with a tricky road game against a feisty North Texas team. I grabbed this point spread when it was at seven, although I'll grab a little more at six-and-a-half.
UConn vs. NC State (Under 46.5)
This could be ugly, and ugly isn't always bad. UConn showcased dramatic improvement last season, and NC State really never found a rhythm offensively. This feels like a 20-13-type game.
SMU (-20.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Our first revenge bet of the year isn't actually a revenge bet. Louisiana Tech's sloppy play cost us money last week, and this is a dramatic step up in class. SMU gets off to a hot start with a win by more than three scores.
Texas A&M (-38) vs. New Mexico
Admittedly, this bet is an outlier compared to the others, but A&M wants to make an impression. For this offense to run effectively, with a new offensive coordinator at the helm, it must run for most of the game. The Aggies secure a massive win.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.