NFL Player Awards Odds: Rookies of the Year, Offensive and Defensive POY, MVP
September 4, 2023NFL Player Awards Odds: Rookies of the Year, Offensive and Defensive POY, MVP
Football may be a team sport, but five particular individual annual awards are a huge focal point for NFL players (whether they'll admit it or not), fans and—of course—bettors.
There's money to be made, folks.
On the brink of the start of the 2023 regular season, let's take a look at the dynamics associated with the odds for MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.
You can bet NFL futures at DraftKings.
Offensive Player of the Year
The Favorites
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase +1100
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson +1300
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey +1500
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb +1700
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill +2000
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields +2000
Sometimes the MVP also wins OPOY, but that hasn't happened since Mahomes did so in 2018. That also marked the last time a quarterback won it. This award has sort of become the "non-QB MVP." Jefferson won the award in 2022 when Chase missed five games and McCaffrey spent part of the year in Carolina.
Best value: Hill +2000
This is kind of linked to my take on Tagovailoa. But it also just feels as though Hill is due for this thing. Remember, he vowed to put up 2,000 yards and I'm not ruling that out.
Worst value: Jefferson +1300
It's hard to see the Vikings remaining strong enough for this to happen again, and there hasn't been a repeat winner of this award since Marshall Faulk did it in 2000 and 2001.
Darkhorse: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler +5000
He's playing for a new contract in what appears to be an energized offense, and new Bolts coordinator Kellen Moore is likely to find a lot of ways to utilize the twice-reigning scrimmage touchdown leader.
Defensive Player of the Year
The Favorites
Dallas Cowboys edge Micah Parsons +500
Cleveland Browns edge Myles Garrett +800
Pittsburgh Steelers edge T.J. Watt +850
San Francisco 49ers edge Nick Bosa +1200
New York Jets CB Sauce Gardner +1600
Once dominated by J.J. Watt and then Aaron Donald, four different players have won this award in the last four seasons. Parsons was last year's runner-up, but he's on the rise and the two other players who received more than 10 percent of the vote share—Nick Bosa and Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones—are currently dealing with contract disputes.
Best value: Nick Bosa +1200
He won the thing last year and he seems to get better each season, yet three guys have stronger odds. It's strange. He's been holding out but don't let that deter you at +1200. It's unlikely he misses much time, if any.
Worst value: Gardner +1600
Only one defensive back has won this thing since 2011, and you also have to protect against a potential sophomore slump in this case. I'd need more juice to take a swing with Sauce.
Darkhorse: Detroit Lions edge Aidan Hutchinson +2500
He's got all the tools coming off a stellar rookie season, and the Lions now have enough talent to support him. It's entirely possible the 2022 No. 2 overall pick explodes in his second season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
The Favorites
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson +275
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young +500
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson +600
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud +850
Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs +1000
A running back hasn't actually won this award since Saquon Barkley did so in 2018, and the last five winners were all top-10 draft picks. That bodes well for everything here except Gibbs (the 12th overall selection in April's draft).
Best value: Stroud +850
Young might have a little more support than Stroud, but not enough to justify a difference of +350 in the odds. Both have taken full command of their respective offenses this summer. Stroud is also much more developed than Richardson, who is likely to make more mistakes as a rookie.
Worst value: Robinson +275
It's tough sledding with three top-five draft picks at quarterback in the mix, and injuries are too much of a risk at that position. These odds are way too high.
Darkhorse: Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers +1800
If Lamar Jackson and that new-look Todd Monken-coached offense light it up as is generally expected, Flowers could have a massive debut season. I don't trust Rashod Bateman or Odell Beckham Jr. either, so it's entirely possible.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
The Favorites
Houston Texans edge Will Anderson Jr. +400
Philadelphia Eagles DL Jalen Carter +700
New England Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez +950
Las Vegas Raiders edge Tyree Wilson +1000
Seattle Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon +1000
The last four winners were top-12 draft picks, which bodes well for everyone listed except Gonzalez (New England's 17th overall selection in April). Anderson is a pretty obvious favorite considering his pre-NFL hype.
Best value: Wilson +1000
He has the ingredients and pedigree to become an immediate sack machine in Las Vegas, and he's absolutely developed enough to contribute right off the bat with plenty of support up front in that defense.
Worst value: Gonzalez +950
He's had some nice moments this summer but this still feels like a reach as folks try to project the next Gardner. Prior to Gardner's win, only two of the previous 23 winners of this award were defensive backs.
Darkhorse: Chiefs edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah +3500
It's entirely possible Chris Jones sits out awhile or is even traded, and the Chiefs used a first-round pick on Anudike-Uzomah for a reason. He's had plenty of action this summer and could easily step up with limited depth up front in K.C.
Most Valuable Player
The Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes +600
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow +750
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen +850
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts +1100
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert +1200
Mahomes is the reigning MVP and there's little doubt he should top this list. However, 12 of the last 13 MVPs failed to make it back-to-back. Humans vote on this thing, and there's a good chance the bar is higher for Mahomes than others and if it's a close call some will side with Burrow, Allen, Hurts or whoever else emerges. It's also worth noting a non-quarterback hasn't won it since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Best value: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa +2200
Nine quarterbacks have better odds to win MVP than last year's highest-rated passer? I know there are injury concerns but that's a steal considering Tua's promising offseason from a health standpoint.
Worst value: Herbert +1200
He's got the ability to win this thing, but has he really done enough to have odds that are within reaching distance of the four guys listed above him? He's never really been in an MVP conversation in three professional seasons.
Darkhorse: Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson +4500
There's a scenario in which Wilson teams up with Sean Payton and slays the dragon that is Mahomes in the AFC West. If that happens, one of the best quarterbacks of this era could absolutely win his first career MVP award.
*Odds, lines and betting splits refresh periodically and are subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
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