Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford - Fantasy Head-to-Toe Breakdown
September 5, 2023Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford - Fantasy Head-to-Toe Breakdown
It's one of the things that makes boxing, well...boxing.
Looking at elite fighters in different weight classes and suggesting what might happen if all physical differences were negated and they simply matched skill for skill.
Those dream matches are the basis for an endless flow of pound-for-pound lists, but it's not too often that bouts can actually be made involving such mismatched principals.
But another thing that makes boxing, well...boxing, is that sometimes they can be.
It's not advanced past the he-said, he-said stages at this point, but there does seem to be at least a smidge of reality to the idea that longtime pay-per-view stalwart Canelo Alvarez and reigning pound-for-pound champ Terence Crawford could share a ring in the next year or so.
"It's possible, why not? It's possible," Alvarez told writer Manouk Akopyan. "If it makes sense, I'm down to do it. I don't care who is there, I'm always able to fight anybody."
It's not quite a signed contract, but the Mexican superstar's suggestion was all the B/R combat team needed to reconvene and apply its standard breakdown rubric—Boxing Ability, Punching Power, Defensive Ability, X-Factors—to the fantasy fight matchup.
Take a look at what we came up with and drop a thought in the comments section of the app.
What You Need to Know
What: Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford
What's at Stake: Oh, so many things.
Competitive superiority. Pound-for-pound status. Interstellar domination.
But seriously, if Alvarez and Crawford do get together while both are at or near the tops of their games, or at least while both are still holding recognized championships, it'd be the sort of high-end summit meeting whose images would be recalled for generations.
Alvarez has been a recognizable star for a decade, he's been a champion in four weight classes, and he currently holds a four-pack of title belts at 168 pounds. Crawford, meanwhile, has been a champion in three classes, now holds every worthwhile belt at 147 pounds, and is recognized by most reputable sources as the world's top pound-for-pound fighter.
And though they're 21 pounds apart on the weigh-in scales, they actually stand eye-to-eye at 5'8" and the Nebraskan would have a three-plus-inch reach advantage (74 inches to 70.5).
In the eyes of Billy Lyell, an ex-world title challenger at 160 pounds, that matters.
"He might be strong enough to have a chance against Canelo, especially since Canelo has lost a step," he told Bleacher Report. "I think it's a 50/50 chance because they are about the same height. Weight only matters to a large degree when a person is heavier and taller. I don't think weight plays nearly as big a role when they are the same height and reach."
Canelo Alvarez's Tale of the Tape
Nickname: Canelo
Record: 59-2-2, 39 KOs
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 166.75 pounds*
Reach: 70.5"
Age: 33
Stance: Orthodox
Rounds: 472
All stats courtesy of BoxRec.
*Official weight at last fight in May 2023.
Terence Crawford's Tale of the Tape
Nickname: Bud
Record: 40-0, 31 KOs
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 146.75 pounds*
Reach: 74"
Age: 35
Stance: Southpaw
Rounds: 233
All stats courtesy of BoxRec.
*Official weight at last fight in July 2023.
Boxing Ability
These guys haven't gotten where they've gotten for no reason.
And though neither is a "boxer" in the Muhammad Ali or Ray Robinson sense, it'd be a mistake to suggest that "boxing ability" isn't a strength for both.
Alvarez has been a pro since 2005 and he's won 59 fights with a variety of approaches that change depending on the style of the man standing in front of him.
When faced with foes who flit around the ring he stalks with varying levels of aggression. And when dealing with those who choose to come toward him, he's patient and particularly effective at countering shots and building up punishment over multiple rounds.
Crawford, meanwhile, is the best in the game these days at switching stances. He can fight effectively in either a conventional or a southpaw stance and will use that ability in early rounds to determine his most likely path to victory.
And given his record is 40-0, it's never not worked.
Similar to Alvarez, he's adept at finding a combative range that allows him to be both close enough to land punches and lure foes into committing too much into their own shots, which he then answers with his own counter attacks.
Neither will move the Compubox needles to the red, but they're both consistent and active and can crank up the work rate when opportunities present themselves. The wild card is what changes, if any, Crawford would make at a significantly higher weight.
Advantage: Crawford, but by the slimmest of margins
Punching Power
If you're looking for a place where Alvarez would have to hold a significant advantage, it'd have to be when punching power is compared.
That's not at all because Crawford can't punch.
He's stopped 31 of 40 opponents and actually has a higher KO percentage in his victories than Alvarez (77.5 to 66.1), but his title-fight wins have typically come as the result of long-term beatings than single-shot obliterations.
In fact, he's reached at least Round 6 in 12 of his 15 stoppage wins in 12-round fights.
Alvarez, when it comes to KOs, can go both ways.
He's stopped 39 of 59 victims since 2005 and nine in 17 wins since the 2013 bout with Floyd Mayweather Jr. that made him a recognizable star in the sport.
Among his memorable finishes have been brain-rattling shots that took care of James Kirkland, Amir Khan and Sergey Kovalev, a wicked body punch that stopped Liam Smith, and a 31-minute bludgeoning of Caleb Plant that prompted a surrender in Round 11.
Crawford has never been stopped and only intermittently damaged, but he's also never been hit by a guy with a track record of hurting guys well beyond the welterweight limit. So unless he's able to land with enough precision or frequency to dissuade Alvarez, it'll be interesting to see how he counters the super middleweight king's aggression and persistence.
Advantage: Alvarez, big
Defensive Ability
If you rattle off a list of the sport's best defensive fighters, Alvarez likely doesn't make the first (or even second) cut. But you have to think a while before you come to many fights where he's been on the receiving end of prolonged, one-sided punishment.
He is fundamentally sound in his ability to bob and roll his head and typically keeps himself in a good position to reply to any shots with his own counters. He's also got a strong enough chin to absorb any damage that does come through and has never been knocked down across 63 fights and six weight classes.
Crawford, though hardly a ballerina, does have mastery of in-ring footwork when it comes to approaching in straight lines or shifting to one side or the other to elude an opponent.
Like Alvarez, he does get hit with single shots, but is rarely the recipient of prolonged volleys. But because he's so effective from multiple stances he's able to counter with hard right hooks as a southpaw, which troubles right-handed foes trying to connect with conventional jabs.
And lest we forget, sound defensive fighters like Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol have made life difficult for Alvarez in the past.
If you crave the prospect of two guys who simply know how to fight, this is your match.
Advantage: Even
X-Factors
Alvarez's X-Factor: Is Canelo still Canelo?
Alvarez has a date with Jermell Charlo, a rising champion from 154 pounds, scheduled for late September. And if he blows Charlo away in six rounds or less or punishes him for the long haul, all will pronounced well in the cinnamon-haired world.
But if it's anything less than a walkover, perhaps it's the right question to be asked.
Bivol won nine or 10 of their 12 rounds when they may in May 2022. An aging Gennadiy Golovkin was still firing back in the late going when they fought four months later. And an outgunned John Ryder, who arrived with five losses, climbed off the floor and went the distance in a perceived post-surgery walk-through for Canelo this spring.
If the dings and dents are real and not simply cosmetic, then a motivated and hungry Crawford could be exactly the wrong guy to be picking a dream fight with.
"Depending on what happens September 30, we may all have to open our eyes to a very competitive matchup between Canelo and Crawford," Randy Gordon, host of At The Fights on SiriusXM Radio, told Bleacher Report. "The Terence Crawford I saw versus Errol Spence could hang with anybody."
Crawford's X-Factor: Yes, he's great. But 168?
There are weight classes for a reason. And when guys who weigh 147 pounds mix with guys who weigh 168 pounds, it's often doesn't go so well for the smaller principal.
So regardless of the fact that he's taller and remarkably skilled and has already been successful in three weight classes, it's still the most pertinent question about this fight.
Crawford has never weighed beyond 147 for a fight and has actually spent the majority of his career weighing significantly less. And, more importantly, he's done so while being hit by guys of similar sizes and weights.
Alvarez isn't just a thicker, presumably stronger man. He's also very good.
And to many, that's the determining factor no matter what else is considered.
"154 at most for Crawford to compete with Canelo," ex-IBF welterweight champion Kermit Cintron, who had a three-inch height advantage when he fought Alvarez in 2011, told Bleacher Report. "Canelo is just so stocky and short so the height wouldn't matter for Crawford. Fighting Canelo at 160 or 168 is a dumb move unless he's cashing in."