NFL 2023 Super Bowl Best Bets and Playoff Locks
September 5, 2023NFL 2023 Super Bowl Best Bets and Playoff Locks
You can feel it in the air—the 2023 NFL season is only two days away. Why not add an adrenaline rush with some responsible wagers?
Before you dig into Week 1 game lines and props, let's look ahead at futures bets.
The Super Bowl teams from the previous year have the best odds to win it all for the upcoming campaign, but you should consider a couple of contenders with +1000 (or higher) odds because recent history indicates that the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will not meet for a title rematch.
Perhaps you want a less risky wager. Of course, we can't guarantee anything in sports betting, especially with the unknown variable of injuries. However, several teams look like locks to punch a ticket to the playoffs.
Before you put money down on anything, check out our two best Super Bowl bets and six additional gambles on teams to make the playoffs. You can bet NFL futures at DraftKings where you can find the odds below.
San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings Odds: (+1000 to win the title)
The San Francisco 49ers went through a clunky offseason. The 49ers traded quarterback Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys just two years after they gave up three first-round picks to draft him. As of Tuesday, San Francisco hasn't come to an agreement on an extension with 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, who's been a summer holdout.
Though the 49ers have taken criticism for their failure to develop Lance and their methodical approach in negotiations with Bosa, they have tabbed their unquestioned starting quarterback in Brock Purdy, who led them to the NFC Championship Game last year.
In the spring, Purdy underwent surgery on his elbow to repair a torn UCL, and he had a decent showing in two preseason games, completing nine out of 14 passes for 138 yards and rushing for 13 yards and a score.
Assuming Purdy naturally progresses under well-respected head coach and offensive play-caller Kyle Shanahan, he should be able to pick up where he left off before the injury. As a starter, Purdy has a 7-1 record (including the playoffs) with 13 touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 67.1 percent completion rate in the regular season. In a quarterback-driven league, San Francisco has its guy under center.
As for Bosa, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler expects the 49ers to strike a deal with the star pass-rusher that would make him the league's highest-paid defensive player.
San Francisco has advanced to the NFC Championship Game in back-to-back campaigns with Bosa at the forefront of a dominant defense. Sooner or later, he'll be back in a 49ers uniform.
With Purdy healthy, Bosa likely on the way back and the addition of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave to a stingy defense, take San Francisco (at great value) to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in four years and win it all.
Cincinnati Bengals
DraftKings Odds: (+1100 to win the title)
Quarterback Joe Burrow had an offseason scare when he went down with a non-contact injury. Since then, he's nursed a calf strain, and he's "day-to-day" according to head coach Zac Taylor.
Even at less than 100 percent with limitations in mobility, Burrow can keep the Bengals offense sharp with his precision passing. In three seasons, he's completed 68.2 percent of his passes and led the league in completion rate (70.4 percent) for the 2021 season.
Let's think back to the 2021 campaign when the Bengals advanced to Super Bowl LVI but came up short in a 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. In that term, Burrow took 70 sacks, the third-most in a single campaign.
Over the last two years, the front office has fortified Burrow's offensive line. Actually, Cincinnati may have one of the top five-man units with the addition of four-time Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams moving to right tackle.
Moreover, the Bengals defense has steadily improved under play-caller Lou Anarumo, allowing fewer points and yards every year since he took over the coordinator job in 2020.
We haven't seen an NFL team win back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots between 2003 and 2004. If you're looking to replace the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl picture because of that trend, the Bengals, who have become the Chiefs' intra-conference nemesis, make sense as the AFC replacement.
Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings Odds: (-500 to make the playoffs)
Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals proved that a well-built roster could ward off a Super Bowl hangover. They lost to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI and finished the 2022 campaign with a better regular-season win percentage.
While we shouldn't expect the Philadelphia Eagles to top their 14-3 record from the 2022 season, which included an 8-0 start, the NFC East squad will remain in the playoff picture because its roster oozes with talent on both sides of the ball.
This offseason, the Eagles signed Jalen Hurts to a five-year, $255 million extension. He's an ascending star quarterback who garnered MVP buzz last year and may put together an impressive encore. He has two stud wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and a high-end offensive line.
Sure, the Eagles lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who accepted the Indianapolis Colts' head-coaching job, but Brian Johnson has been Hurts' position coach for the previous two years. He's familiar with the young signal-caller's strengths.
Defensively, the Eagles had to reload after they lost defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White.
Nonetheless, rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter has generated buzz as a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Fellow rookie first-rounder Nolan Smith comes into the league with great upside as an edge-rusher. Jordan Davis, a 2022 first-round pick, and Nakobe Dean, a 2022 third-rounder, could showcase their disruptive qualities with more snaps in the front seven. Terrell Edmunds brings starting experience to the safety position.
The Eagles had to shuffle the deck with the loss of offensive guard Isaac Seumalo, running back Miles Sanders and several defensive starters, but they still have a loaded roster that's too good to miss the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings Odds: (-450 to make the playoffs)
As previously noted, we haven't seen an NFL team win back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots 20 years ago, which should make bettors a bit nervous about taking the Kansas City Chiefs to win the title at +600.
However, gamblers can make a safe wager on the Chiefs to clinch a ninth consecutive playoff berth and even take it a step further on the team's odds (-165) to win the AFC West title for the eighth consecutive season.
Kansas City has the best quarterback-head coach tandem with two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes and two-time Super Bowl-winning lead skipper Andy Reid attached at the hip.
Last offseason, the Chiefs traded All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, and Mahomes still threw for a league-leading 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns in an MVP year.
While Mahomes and Reid deserve praise for a bulk of Kansas City's recent success, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should get some recognition because he fielded a solid defense that featured several upstart players last season.
As a rookie, George Karlaftis finished second on the team in sacks (six) and registered eight tackles for loss. As second- and third-year pros, Willie Gay and Nick Bolton looked like one of the league's best linebacker duos. As rookie cornerbacks, Trent McDuffie (first-rounder), Joshua Williams (fourth-rounder) and Jaylen Watson (seventh-rounder) all played at least 437 snaps and recorded at least six pass breakups.
Even with the uncertainty around defensive tackle Chris Jones' holdout, the Chiefs will remain atop the NFL hierarchy with Mahomes, Reid and a young defense that will continue to blossom under Spagnuolo.
Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Odds: (-265 to make the playoffs)
This isn't a slam-dunk wager because the Buffalo Bills play in arguably the league's toughest division.
The Bills should look over their shoulder in the AFC East.
This offseason, the New York Jets acquired four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers and signed four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook.
Coming off their first playoff appearance in six years, the Miami Dolphins added renowned defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to the coaching staff, and they may welcome back three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee surgery) late in the season.
The New England Patriots should field a respectable offense with experienced play-caller Bill O'Brien in quarterback Mac Jones' headset. He can't be much worse than the Matt Patricia-Joe Judge offensive play-calling combo from the previous campaign.
However, the Bills have an elite playmaking quarterback in Josh Allen, and he has a strong connection with All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs, who registered a 70.1 percent catch rate in 2022.
As long as Allen stays healthy, the Bills will put up points through the air, and he'll likely continue to make plays with his legs to supplement the ground attack. Because of his attributes, Allen has MVP potential.
Allen will get help from a defensive unit that ranked second and sixth in points and yards allowed, respectively, last season.
Despite the loss of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency and Von Miller's extensive road to recovery from a torn ACL, the Bills have a few pass-rushing closers up front in Greg Rousseau, Leonard Floyd and A.J. Epenesa. Cornerback Tre'Davious White could rediscover his All-Pro form almost two years after tearing his ACL in 2021.
Be cautious about putting money on the Bills to win the AFC East, but they're a playoff lock with a Super Bowl-caliber roster.
Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings Odds: (-230 to make the playoffs)
Football fans love to make fun of the Dallas Cowboys for their inability to perform at a level that matches the buzz around the franchise.
However, Dallas looks to be on a pathway to model consistency under head coach Mike McCarthy and his staff. The Cowboys have won 12 games in successive seasons, and they clinched a playoff berth in consecutive years (2021 and 2022) for the first time since the 2006-07 terms.
While the Cowboys must figure out how to beat the San Francisco 49ers, who eliminated them in back-to-back playoff matchups, Dallas isn't going to fall out of the playoff picture this year.
Skeptics may have concerns about quarterback Dak Prescott's recent pattern of interceptions, but McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer can devise a game plan that features budding running back Tony Pollard, who could run wild behind a stout offensive line and move the ball downfield as a receiver in the short passing game.
Keep in mind that the Cowboys went 4-1 with Cooper Rush under center while Prescott recovered from thumb surgery. They're not totally reliant on their starting signal-caller, and that will be the case this year because of the club's upgrades on defense.
This offseason, Dallas acquired cornerback Stephon Gilmore from the Indianapolis Colts and selected defensive tackle Mazi Smith in the first round of the draft.
With Gilmore and Trevon Diggs on the boundary, the Cowboys can slow down high-powered aerial attacks while Smith strengthens a run defense that ranked 22nd in yards allowed last season. Most importantly, Micah Parsons looks like a viable candidate to win 2023 Defensive Player of the Year as a "pass-rushing linebacker."
Dallas will make a third consecutive playoff appearance with a well-balanced roster in the weaker of the two NFL conferences.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Odds: (-195 to make the playoffs)
Last season, we saw quarterback Trevor Lawrence turn the corner and lead the Jacksonville Jaguars to the playoffs. In the postseason, he put together a memorable performance, digging a hole for his team with four first-half interceptions and then pulling Jacksonville out of it with four straight touchdown drives to complete one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history.
Like Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, Lawrence has the ability to revive a franchise that sunk to the bottom of the AFC, though the latter has a Super Bowl-winning head coach who helped turn his career around.
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson fizzled out in Philadelphia three years after a Super Bowl win, but he's led four teams to the playoffs in six years as a lead skipper.
In a division with two rebuilding teams that will trot out rookie quarterbacks, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, bettors can expect Jacksonville to reclaim the AFC South title over the Tennessee Titans, who trended in the wrong direction last season.
Outside of the AFC South, the Jaguars will play arguably the worst division in the NFC with matchups against the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. The Falcons and Panthers have unproven quarterbacks in Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young, respectively. The Buccaneers and Saints have new veteran signal-callers with Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr under center, respectively.
Jacksonville's defense must tighten up after ranking 24th in total yards last season, but the Jaguars' continuity on offense coupled with the return of wide receiver Calvin Ridley should help them beat low-tier opponents and win the go-either-way games on their schedule.
New Orleans Saints
DraftKings Odds: (-190 to make the playoffs)
We've seen a 50 percent turnover in playoff teams in 2021 and 2022. On this list of Super Bowl bets and playoff locks, the New Orleans Saints are the team to rock the playoff boat.
In 2022, the Saints hit their stride late in the campaign, winning three of their last four games following a Week 14 bye, but they finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs for a consecutive year.
In the offseason, the Saints signed Derek Carr, and he's a clear upgrade over quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, who split starts last season. Furthermore, Carr is easily the best signal-caller in the NFC South with rookie Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder and Baker Mayfield in the division.
Carr will have a lead wide receiver in Chris Olave, a healthy Michael Thomas, big-play wideout Rashid Shaheed and underrated pass-catching tight end Juwan Johnson in the aerial attack.
New Orleans offense may not put up as many points as it did with former head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, but the unit should fare better than it did last year. In 2022, the Saints ranked 22nd in scoring and 19th in total yards.
Though running back Alvin Kamara will serve a three-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy, stemming from an arrest after an altercation in 2022, running back Jamaal Williams, who's coming off his best year with career highs in rushing yards (1,066) and touchdowns (17), will handle the lion's share of the rushing workload with rookie third-rounder Kendre Miller capable of spelling him.
Now, let's take a look at the schedule.
Outside of the NFC South, the Saints will face the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, four teams that have starting quarterbacks with a lot to prove.
If head coach Dennis Allen's defense finishes within the top 10 in points and yards allowed for a fourth consecutive season, the Saints would have a clear pathway to the playoffs.
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Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.