Best-Value NFL Futures to Lock in Before 2023 Kickoff
September 6, 2023Best-Value NFL Futures to Lock in Before 2023 Kickoff
The 2023 NFL season will officially kick off on Thursday when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.
This means that we're entering the final day in which all teams are undefeated. For those looking to make a few wagers, now is the perfect time to maximize value on NFL futures bets.
Below, you'll find some of our favorite picks for season-long wagers based on the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. We're focusing on value here, so while picking the Chiefs to repeat or Patrick Mahomes to win MVP might feel like "safe" bets, their odds aren't quite as alluring as those for a longer shots with a reasonable chance to win it all.
Bet NFL futures at DraftKings.
Tua Tagovailoa +2200 to Win MVP
Had Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stayed healthy, he might have been in the MVP running last season. The 25-year-old signal-caller led all qualifying quarterbacks with a 105.5 passer rating and threw for 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns in only 13 games.
Of course, a series of concussions sidelined Tagovailoa at the end of the year, and we continue to wait for his first full breakout campaign.
After working all offseason on ways to avoid injury—bulking up and studying Judo along the way—Tagovailoa could be poised for a full and truly impressive campaign. With playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert at his disposal, he should be among the league's most prolific passers by season's end.
The other factor to consider is that awards voters love a good story. Tagovailoa rebounding from an injury-hampered campaign to establish himself as an elite quarterback would certainly qualify.
With +2200 odds (bet $100 to win $2200), Tagovailoa is a tremendous MVP value ahead of Week 1.
CeeDee Lamb +3500 to Win OPOY
The MVP award has become a quarterback award in the modern NFL. The last non-quarterback to be named Most Valuable Player was Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Skill players get the chance to win Offensive Player of the Year, and the past two OPOY winners were wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp. There's a good chance that a prolific receiver will win again in 2023, and at +3500, CeeDee Lamb is an enticing option.
Lamb hasn't threatened to lead the league in receiving over the past couple of years, but he did rack up 107 receptions, 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022. That's impressive, especially considering Dak Prescott missed five games with a hand injury.
If Prescott can stay healthy this year, Lamb could be poised to explode even further.
"He's really only scratched the surface in what he's capable of doing," Prescott said, per ESPN's Todd Archer.
This is an award that often requires being in the spotlight, and few teams draw attention quite like the Cowboys.
Haason Reddick +3000 to Win DPOY
The list of early favorites for Defensive Player of the Year includes the usual suspects: Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Nick Bosa. Philadelphia Eagles pass-rusher Haason Reddick has longer odds at +3000, but perhaps he shouldn't.
Reddick is coming off a fantastic season in which he amassed 16 sacks and 41 quarterback pressures. Bosa was the only player to record more sacks than Reddick in 2022—Garrett also had 16.0—and the San Francisco 49ers star is still holding out for a new contract.
"Until there is a significant breakthrough, I do not expect Nick Bosa on the field for the San Francisco 49ers," NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said Monday on Total Access.
If Bosa misses games early in the year, it could take the reigning DPOY out of Reddick's way in the sacks race. The odds here are simply too good to pass over.
Jahmyr Gibbs +1000 to Win OROY
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (+275) is a heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, which should surprise exactly no one. The do-it-all back is expected to have prolific roles in Atlanta's running and passing games this season.
Detroit Lions rookie tailback Jahmyr Gibbs is a longer shot at +1000, but those odds could make him a much better value.
Robinson will do a lot, but he'll also be competing for touches with Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London, Jonnu Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson. There's simply no guarantee that he sees a bigger workload than the explosive Gibbs—who also appears poised to contribute in a variety of ways.
"We might use Gibbs in some ways that people don't quite think we might," offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said, per Tim Twentyman of the team's official website.
Without knowing exactly how these two potentially special backs will be used as rookies, picking the player with the higher prospective payout is prudent.
Jakorian Bennett +10000 to Win DROY
No list of value futures would be complete without a true long shot. With +10000 odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Jakorian Bennett is exactly that.
Bennett, a fourth-round pick out of Maryland, doesn't enter Week 1 with as much buzz as DROY favorites like Will Anderson Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. However, he's listed just behind nickel back Nate Hobbs on Las Vegas' official depth chart and should be poised for early playing time.
That's the first step toward rookie-of-the-year recognition. The second is making a substantial impact, as reigning DROY Sauce Gardner did with a league-high 20 passes defended in 2022.
Bennett has the ball skills to replicate Gardner's success. He had 22 deflections in his final two years at Maryland and had 24 pass breakups in 28 career games. The rookie should have frequent chances to make plays with ballhawk Marcus Peters playing on the perimeter in Las Vegas.
These are juicy odds for a player with the tools and the opportunity needed to shine, even if Bennett will have to overcome a lower profile to win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 to Win NFC South
Despite winning the division in 2022, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have become the forgotten team in the NFC South. The Bucs have the longest odds to win the division at +1000, and that makes them an intriguing value bet.
Yes, Tampa lost Tom Brady to retirement this offseason. Yes. it is set to start the too-often up-and-down Baker Mayfield at quarterback. However, the Buccaneers still have a talented roster filled with impact players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr.
If Mayfield can be the potent passer he was as a rookie in 2018 and as a playoff quarterback in 2020, Tampa will be a lot more playoff-relevant than most expect.
Having the league's 11th-easiest schedule—in terms of 2022 winning percentage—certainly won't hurt.
The New Orleans Saints are the favorites in the division. With a top-tier defense and a seasoned quarterback in Derek Carr, they should be. At these odds, however, the discounted Bucs are worth a preseason flier.
Detroit Lions +1100 to Win NFC
The Lions are among the favorites to win the NFC this season, but at +1100, they provide a much better value than the Eagles (+250), 49ers (+350) and Cowboys (+600).
And Detroit is absolutely capable of making a run in the conference. With offensive stars like Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones Jr. and Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff, the Lions should again have one of the league's most explosive offense.
The Lions also took steps to improve a defense that ranked dead-last in yards allowed last season. Additions like C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, Brian Branch and Jack Campbell will make Detroit a much more complete team. The big question is whether the Lions can handle increasingly lofty expectations.
"We're not scared of the expectations," general manager Brad Holmes said, per ESPN's Eric Woodyard.
Now is the time to jump on Detroit. If the Lions hang with the defending champs on Thursday—or shockingly pull off the upset—their odds won't make them as valuable on Friday.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5000 to Win Super Bowl LVIII
Those looking for a dark-horse team to win the Super Bowl should be thrilled to find the Pittsburgh Steelers at +5000. This is a team that had a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett and didn't have star pass-rusher T.J. Watt for seven games in 2022 but still won nine games.
With a healthy Watt, a more experienced Pickett and a far more complete roster, Pittsburgh should be even better in 2023.
The additions of Allen Robinson II and a healthy Calvin Austin III should help improve an offense that ranked 26th in scoring last season. Isaac Seumalo and Broderick Jones should bolster what was previously an inconsistent offensive line, while Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr. will strengthen a secondary that ranked 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Oh, and Pittsburgh faces the league's eighth-easiest schedule this season.
The Steelers, who have never finished below .500 under Mike Tomlin, are a very strong bet to make the postseason. Yet, Pittsburgh has the same odds as the Chicago Bears, who won just three games in 2022.
A loaded AFC and brutal AFC North are keeping the Steelers as long shots. As long-shot Super Bowl futures bets go, however, you're not going to find a better value than Pittsburgh.
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