NFL Picks Week 1: Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
September 7, 2023NFL Picks Week 1: Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Thursday night will mark a momentous occasion in 2023. When the Detroit Lions visit the Kansas City Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET, the 2023 NFL season will officially be underway.
Bettors have been waiting for the new year to kick off, and they'll have no shortage of options during Thursday's game. However, there's a full slate on the horizon, and fans might be able to find some better values by looking ahead.
We've pored over the entire Week 1 slate and identified a few player props with intriguing early-week values. You'll find a look at some of our favorites below.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown
The New England Patriots could have a tough time against the Philadelphia Eagles and their vaunted pass rush on Sunday. New England is implementing a new offense under new/former coordinator Bill O'Brien, and it's likely to be a process.
However, O'Brien hasn't completely revamped everything in New England.
The Athletic's Jeff Howe reported back in June that while O'Brien has brought several concepts with him from Alabama, he'll continue to focus on the zone-running scheme that the Patriots utilized last year.
That's great news for Rhamondre Stevenson, who is poised to handle a significant workload.
The Eagles could have some growing pains of their own, with Sean Desai taking over for Jonathan Gannon as defensive coordinator. Philly, it should be noted, wasn't dominant against the run last year, ranking 24th in yards per carry allowed.
Stevenson is +125 (bet $100 to win $125) to find the end zone against the Eagles, and those are good odds for an emerging star running back.
Calvin Ridley over 62.5 Receiving Yards
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley last played in 2021, and he may not instantly explode as Jacksonville's new No. 1 receiver.
However, his over/under of 62.5 receiving yards still feels low for his matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
Ridley flashed a ton of chemistry with quarterback Trevor Lawrence during the preseason. While exhibition games must be taken with a grain of salt, the timing and trust Lawrence had with Ridley can't be discounted.
The 28-year-old may take a little time to get back to being the 1,300-yard receiver he was in 2020. However, I'd expect Lawrence to turn to him early and often on Sunday in an effort to get Ridley back into a regular-season mindset.
The Colts, meanwhile, have an average pass defense that ranked 16th in yards per reception in 2022. Expect a half-dozen or more targets for Ridley, who should finish with 60-70 receiving yards.
Ridley is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the over here.
Joe Burrow over 266.5 Passing Yards
It's looking more and more likely that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (calf) will suit up against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
"My understanding is he is trending in the right direction," NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said Wednesday on Good Morning Football.
Burrow has struggled at times against his in-state rivals, and he didn't reach 267 passing yards in either of last year's meetings. However, star Browns cornerback Denzel Ward remains in concussion protocol—he was a limited participant on Wednesday—and might not suit up against Cincinnati.
The Browns carried only six cornerbacks into the regular season, they lack experienced dept, and their depth will be tested against Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
The Bengals, meanwhile, should look to go pass-heavy in this game—both to avoid running into Cleveland's new-look defensive front and to jump-start Burrow into mid-season form.
Burrow should narrowly top the 266.5 line, and he's -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to do so.
Kenneth Walker III Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
At first blush, the over/under of 63.5 rushing yards for Kenneth Walker III might appear low. Walker topped 100 yards in his final three games for the Seattle Seahawks last season, and the rival Los Angeles Rams aren't expected to be particularly good this year.
However, it's important to note that Seattle added Zach Charbonnet to its backfield in the draft. Walker wasn't an every-down back before Rashaad Penny's season-ending injury in 2022, and he probably won't be again with Charbonnet in the mix.
Fans shouldn't ignore the fact that Walker was very up-and-down as a rookie either. He topped 100 rushing yards five times but failed to reach 60 rushing yards eight times in 15 games.
The Rams know Seattle well, and if Walker isn't the hot hand early, Charbonnet will cut significantly into his workload.
Walker has -115 odds (bet $115 to win $100) for both sides of this over/under, and I like the under at this point in the week.
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