B/R Fantasy Football's Game-by-Game Guide to Winning Week 1
September 7, 2023B/R Fantasy Football's Game-by-Game Guide to Winning Week 1
Do you feel that? The crackle of electricity in the air? Fantasy football season is here, y'all.
Thursday night, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs will do battle at Arrowhead Stadium—and another season of fantasy football will begin.
Now, we've already made an effort to help you prepare for the upcoming season with Week 1 Rankings here at Bleacher Report. But we're going to try something different in 2023.
Each week we're going to go game-by-game. We're going to look at the injuries that could affect that matchup and pick out one must-start name.
We'll also select one must-sit figure and single out a player who should be considered for a trade, either now or in the near future. And we'll highlight one stat that fantasy managers should know about the teams in each game.
In short, we're going to provide a one-stop shop for all the information you need to bring home a win that week.
So, let's get after it.
Fantasy points allowed data courtesy of My Fantasy League.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Key Injuries
Per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce has a bone bruise in his knee, leaving his status for Thursday in doubt. Chiefs wideout Kadarius Toney has been a limited participant in practice the past few days as he recovers from offseason knee surgery.
Start of the Week
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,000]: Fantasy managers using Goff as a low-end weekly starter or part of a platoon couldn't ask for a better matchup to start the season. The Lions will have to throw to keep up with Kansas City, who were third in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season.
Sit of the Week
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700]: The same shootout potential that helps Goff in this game hurts Montgomery. Detroit may try to establish the run to keep Kansas City off the field, but this feels like a game in which the running back will need a touchdown to salvage a decent fantasy day.
Sleeper
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Kansas City Chiefs [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100]: There are two people Patrick Mahomes likes to target close to the goal line: Kelce and McKinnon. They combined for over half of Kansas City's 41 receiving scores a year ago. If Kelce isn't able to go Thursday, McKinnon is a good bet to find the end zone.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
The moment Toney has a monster game (and it's possible it's this week), fantasy managers should be looking to sell. Talent has never been the question with the third-year pro, but he's given zero indication over two-plus years that he can stay on the field.
Stat to Know
Thirty-five. That's the number of career catches Chiefs tight end Noah Gray has. You can't just plug a guy into Kelce's spot and expect his numbers, and there are better streaming options available at the position in Week 1 for Kelce managers feeling the pinch.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Key Injuries
The Carolina Panthers are dealing with injuries to a pair of offensive starters, and though running back Miles Sanders looks set to play, wide receiver DJ Chark (hamstring) is still a doubt. The Falcons are fairly healthy offensively, although RB Cordarrelle Patterson (undisclosed) didn't practice Monday.
Start of the Week
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400]: London didn't enjoy quite the statistical success fellow rookies Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson did in 2022. But his first matchup of his second season sets up well to start 2023 on the right foot—the Panthers gave up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2022.
Sit of the Week
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500]: There aren't a lot of obvious sits in this game, and most managers in one-QB leagues wouldn't be starting the first overall pick anyway. But even in superflex formats, it's wise to take a game to see what the Carolina offense looks like before rolling Young out there.
Sleeper
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,600]: If Chark's hamstring won't allow him to play, then Thielen could see a robust target share. Even if Chark is able to play, we don't yet know who Young's go-to WR will be. Thielen has the better NFL resume and is the more proven wideout of the pair.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
Sanders became the first Eagles running back since LeSean McCoy in 2014 to rush for 1,000 yards last year on the way to a top-15 PPR finish. But he isn't running behind Philadelphia's offensive line anymore, and the 26-year-old recently had a groin injury. The first chance you get to convince a leaguemate Sanders can approach last year's numbers, it's time to sell.
Stat to Know
Twenty-eight. That's the number of catches Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had last year after topping 1,000 yards as a rookie. Let us all light a candle in the hope that Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder can do in 2023 what Marcus Mariota seemingly couldn't last year: Remember that Pitts is on the team.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Key Injuries
There's only one injury of note in the "Battle of Ohio," but it's a lulu: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is day-to-day after injuring his calf in the offseason. However, he is back at practice, and head coach Zac Taylor has expressed optimism that Cincinnati's star signal-caller will be out there against the Browns.
Start of the Week
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800]: OK, so this is something of a no-brainer, and the Browns spent big in the offseason to upgrade the defensive line. But the Cleveland linebackers are still a major question mark, and the Browns gave up 135 yards per game on the ground iast year.
Sit of the Week
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800]: Cleveland's run defense may have been trash in 2022, but the secondary wasn't—it was fifth in pass defense and allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points to wide receivers. Only once in his professional career has Higgins recorded 75 receiving yards in a game against Cleveland.
Sleeper
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns [DraftKings DFS Value: $3,800]: This isn't a call based on any real quantitative measure; the Bengals weren't a great fantasy matchup for opposing wide receivers. But with Cincinnati focused on stopping Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb, maybe Moore can get behind single coverage to catch a long one.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
The Bengals have expressed interest in re-signing Higgins long-term, but there are some harsh financial realities coming in the Queen City. Now, it's possible the 24-year-old could be even more valuable as a No. 1 receiver elsewhere, but he could land somewhere with considerably worse QB play. Dynasty managers with depth at wide receiver should at least consider shopping the fourth-year veteran.
Stat to Know
295 and two. That is the average game that Burrow has had in five starts against the Browns over his career: 295 passing yards and two touchdowns. However, while he has managed a fair amount of statistical success versus Cleveland, it hasn't translated to wins. He has just one victory over the Browns in five attempts.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Key Injuries
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess at running back. Star tailback Jonathan Taylor is on the physically unable to perform list, and backup Zack Moss is working his way back from a broken arm suffered in the offseason. The Jaguars are in much better shape heading into Week 1, with no offensive players of note injured.
Start of the Week
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,900]: There's been no shortage of hand-wringing this summer over Etienne's fantasy value after the Jags drafted Tank Bigsby. But in Week 1 at least, the third-year running back should be just fine. The Colts gave up the seventh-most PPR points to running backs in 2022.
Sit of the Week
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,600]: Fantasy managers who rolled the dice on Richardson no doubt can't wait to see the wildly athletic quarterback in action. But given all the chaos swirling around the Colts, starting an inexperienced rookie against a solid Jaguars defense isn't the wisest course of action.
Sleeper
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,500]
Between the presence of Christian Kirk and the arrival of Calvin Ridley, Jones has become something of a forgotten man in the Jaguars' passing game. But we're talking about a wideout who topped 80 catches and 800 yards last year, and he should see single coverage most of the time given all the passing-game talent around him.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
This may sound like Charlie Brown barreling toward a football, but dynasty managers should be sending out offers for Taylor right now. It's possible this standoff between player and team drags on the rest of this season and maybe even into 2024. But we're talking about a top-five running back potentially available at a significant discount. That's worth exploring.
Stat to Know
53.8. That's the percentage of passes Richardson completed last season while at Florida. There's no denying his unique blend of size and speed—it's Cam Newton meets Lamar Jackson. He has a rocket for an arm as well. But for all that talent, the 21-year-old is a very raw prospect and will likely test the patience of fantasy managers early in the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
Key Injuries
Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is battling a back injury, but he's fully expected to play against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans is in a similar situation due to a groin injury, but it's not expected to jeopardize his status for Sunday's game.
Start of the Week
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900]
When Baker Mayfield has produced fantasy-relevant wide receivers in the past, they have typically played in the slot. When the Vikings defense has produced fantasy-relevant wideouts, they have played on the field. Only one team allowed more passing yards per game last year than the Vikings, and there's no reason to believe the secondary will be markedly better in 2023.
Sit of the Week
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,500]
Whether Mattison is on the verge of a breakout season, or a middling talent overvalued in 2022 because of a lack of competition for touches is a debate that won't be settled in one game. But the Buccaneers have long been a difficult team to run on. They allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs last season.
Sleeper
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,900]
Recommending Mayfield as a fantasy start in Week 1 might be a harbinger of the end times. But while he is never going to be confused with the quarterback he's replacing (Tom Somebody, I think), the reality is that the Minnesota defense was awful last year. A new defensive coordinator in Brian Flores is just handing the wheel on the Titanic to a new captain. The boat still has a hole in it.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
At the first sign of a Mike Evans-esque game from the veteran wideout, dynasty and redraft managers should look to sell to a manager enamored with those nine straight 1,000-yard seasons. The 30-year-old isn't getting any younger, this is the last year of his contract and Mayfield's history with boundary wideouts is, er, not good. See Beckham Jr., Odell.
Stat to Know
388.7 and 265.6. That's the number of total yards per game and passing yards per game allowed by the Minnesota defense in 2022. The Vikings downgraded from Za'Darius Smith to Marcus Davenport on the edge, linebacker Eric Kendricks is gone, and Byron Murphy is at best a marginal upgrade at cornerback. This is a defensive matchup fantasy managers should always look to attack.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will sit this one out as the first of a three-game personal conduct suspension. Other than that, though, these teams head into Week 1 relatively healthy on offense.
Start of the Week
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100]
It goes without saying that Chris Olave is an every-week start at wide receiver. And expecting Thomas to become the guy who set the single-season receptions record again isn't realistic. But in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in 2022, no team was a better matchup than the Titans. It's a good spot for the Thomas bounce-back tour to begin.
Sit of the Week
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100]
For the first three weeks of the season at least, Williams will serve as the lead back for the Saints. Unfortunately, that stretch begins against a Titans defense that gave up a league-low 76.9 yards per game on the ground in 2022. Things weren't that much better from a fantasy perspective, as Tennessee allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points to running backs.
Sleeper
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints [DraftKings DFS Value: $3,900]
Johnson was ridiculously efficient last year in terms of scoring touchdowns, finding the end zone seven times on just 42 receptions. That kind of pace isn't sustainable, but he is one of those potential streaming plays for Kelce managers this week against a Titans secondary that gave up the fifth-most PPR points to TEs in 2022.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
A big game from Thomas isn't going to help with his asking price in potential trade negotiations, but on the off-chance I'm wrong, the 30-year-old could still be worth trying to acquire on the cheap. He's as healthy as he's been in years, Derek Carr is a capable NFL quarterback, and Olave should draw the lion's share of attention from opposing defenses.
Stat to Know
383. That's the number of touches Titans running back Derrick Henry had in 2022. That number matters because, historically, running backs who touch the ball over 370 times in a season see a significant decline in production the following year. The last time Henry surpassed 370 touches, he missed half the following campaign with an injured foot.
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Injuries
Kelce isn't the only big name at tight end in danger of sitting out Week 1. George Kittle has a history of durability issues, and he's nursing a groin injury that has put his eligibility for Sunday's tilt in Pittsburgh in jeopardy. Outside that, from a fantasy perspective, both teams are fairly healthy.
Start of the Week
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300]
Johnson's 2022 season was a forgettable one. Despite 147 targets and 86 receptions, he scored as many touchdowns last year as I did. But while the San Francisco 49ers have, arguably, the best defense in the league, they were surprisingly generous to opposing receivers last year, finishing sixth in PPR points allowed to the position.
Sit of the Week
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100]
The 49ers may have allowed fantasy points to opposing receivers, but good luck running the ball against them. They allowed an NFC-low 77.7 rushing yards per game last year and were dead last in PPR points allowed to running backs. Neither is a great stat for a running back who hasn't averaged four yards per carry in either of his professional seasons.
Sleeper
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,600]
This call hinges on the Steelers being unable to get the run game going and quite possibly falling behind. If they go to a pass-heavy game script, that could mean more snaps for Warren, If he can rack up some dump-offs out of the backfield, the 24-year-old could at least work his way into low-end flex consideration.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
Speaking of Warren, he's a player fantasy managers may want to target while his trade value is still relatively low. Harris is a workhorse running back, but he's one of the most inefficient starters at his position in the NFL. At some point, the Steelers are going to have to give more work to Warren, who is more explosive and a superior receiver.
Stat to Know
613. That's how many days it has been since Diontae Johnson caught his last touchdown pass in a Week 17 matchup with the Cleveland Browns in 2021. But that drought's going to end Sunday against the 49ers. It's shot-calling time: Johnson finds paydirt in Week 1. Book it.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders
Key Injuries
The injuries on the Arizona side aren't surprising. Kyler Murray opened the season on the PUP list, and veteran tight end Zach Ertz may not play in Week 1 as he rehabs his own ACL tear. Meanwhile, Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin is questionable after suffering a toe injury in the preseason, but it appears Washington will have veteran tight end Logan Thomas available to open the regular season.
Start of the Week
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200]
There's risk involved in trusting either Gibson or Brian Robinson in fantasy football, as there's no telling how the carry-share could be divvied up from one week to the next. But this week both Commanders backs are at least on the flex radar. If Washington isn't grinding out a lead in the second half of this game, something has gone terribly wrong.
Sit of the Week
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200]
Brown has shown the ability to be a No. 1 receiver in the past. When Hopkins was on the shelf in the first six weeks of 2022, Brown was fifth among wide receivers in PPR points. But that was with competent QB play, and that position in Arizona is such a mess that Brown can't even be trusted based on sheer volume and garbage-time numbers until we see it.
Sleeper
Washington Commanders Defense [DraftKings DFS Value: 2,800]
There isn't a better streaming option among NFL defenses this week than the Commanders. With Kyler Murray out and Colt McCoy gone, the Redbirds look set to start Josh Dobbs at quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins is in Tennessee now. The Cardinals very much look the part of the worst team in the NFL and a prime matchup for opposing fantasy defenses.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
It might seem odd to advise targeting Brown in trades just after proclaiming his situation a disaster, but this is a play with the future in mind. He is only 26, and with this being the last year of his contract, he'll likely be playing with a better quarterback in 2024. Wait until a manager has had all the Dobbs he can take and then swoop in with an offer.
Stat to Know
Eighty-five. That's how many passing attempts in the NFL that Dobbs and backup Clayton Tune have combined—and all of those belong to Dobbs. The Cardinals offense is all but certain to be atrocious in 2023, and by the time Murray is healthy enough to play, the team probably won't have any reason to put him on the field. It's going to be awfully difficult to trust any of Arizona's skill-position players as more than fringe fantasy assets this season.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Key Injuries
Mark Andrews missed practice time recently with an undisclosed injury, but he was back at practice Wednesday and looks to be on track to play in Week 1. With the Ravens tight end looking like a go, it appears both teams will be close to full strength Sunday.
Start of the Week
JK Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,600]
It's been a while since the Ravens headed into the regular season with their No. 1 running back healthy. But the timing for Dobbins and fantasy managers couldn't be better: Baltimore opens the year against a Texans defense that gave up a staggering 170.2 yards per game on the ground in 2022. Even with offseason improvements, Houston appears to be a team that can be run on with relative ease.
Sit of the Week
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300]
To say the Texans were a bad defensive team last year is akin to saying the Teletubbies are annoying: It's accurate but a whopping understatement. However, the Texans secondary is actually pretty good and allowed the third-fewest PPR points to wideouts last season. Add in an unsure target share, and all the Ravens receivers are risky fantasy plays this week.
Sleeper
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,700]
Injuries have played a part, admittedly, but the Ravens were 26th in the NFL last year in pass defense. That secondary should be markedly better this season, but in a game where Baltimore should be playing from ahead, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will have little choice but to take to the air. That sets the stage for at least some garbage-time production from Collins.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
The Ravens don't open the season with an especially favorable schedule for receivers, and that could make some fantasy managers antsy about Bateman. This is a speculative target that may not pay off, but it's also possible that 2-3 weeks into the season you can get Bateman or Odell Beckham as little more than a throw-in as part of a larger deal.
Stat to Know
5.9. That's how many yards Dobbins has averaged every time he's carried the ball in the NFL. If the fourth-year veteran can stay healthy this season, he may still get that contract extension he sought in the offseason, and fantasy managers could find themselves with a top-10 fantasy asset and the sort of value that wins leagues.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Key Injuries
Chicago Bears wide receiver Chase Claypool has a hamstring injury, but he's expected to play Sunday. But the Green Bay Packers could have bigger problems. Romeo Doubs (hamstring) and Christian Watson (undisclosed) were absent from practice Wednesday, with the former the less likely of the pair to play against Chicago.
Start of the Week
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300)
The Bears added a pair of new linebackers this offseason in T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, which should improve their 31st-ranked run defense from a year ago. But the Bears also allowed the third-most PPR points to running backs in 2022, and the Packers should lean on the run game more this season than in years past.
Sit of the Week
D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100]
Bears quarterback Justin Fields was no doubt over the moon to get a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver when Chicago traded for Moore. But his first outing with his new team could be disappointing—Moore will no doubt see a lot of Jaire Alexander in coverage, and the Packers allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points to wideouts last year.
Sleeper
A.J. Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200]
The Packers are breaking in a "new" quarterback in Jordan Love, but he could be without his top two wide receivers in Week 1. The Packers are facing a Bears team that was abysmal against the run in 2022. Add it all together, and you get the recipe for a gameplan that Vince Lombardi would have loved.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
The Doubs injury is unfortunate, but it could present an opportunity for some fantasy managers, especially if it lingers and the team rostering him starts piling up losses. He garnered breakout buzz in some fantasy circles this summer, and getting him in exchange for an end-of-bench wideout who is actually playing could be a nice get.
Stat to Know
149.5 is the number of passing yards per game that Fields averaged in 2022. Now, the 1,143 rushing yards that he piled up rather made up for that, but if he is going to take the next step in his third season and become an elite fantasy option, he has to get the passing game going in the Windy City.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Key Injuries
The Denver Broncos are expected to be without Jerry Jeudy after the wide receiver pulled a hamstring in practice a couple of weeks ago. But running back Javonte Williams carries no injury designation and should be fit. The Las Vegas Raiders are light on injuries, but given running back Josh Jacobs only recently joined the team, it's likely he'll be on a "pitch count" of sorts in this first game.
Start of the Week
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700]
Hey, remember that running back I just mentioned? Well, if you drafted Williams at a discount over the summer, you won't have to wait long to start reaping the rewards. The Broncos open the 2023 campaign against a Raiders defense that might be worse than the unit that surrendered 122.8 rushing yards per game and the fifth-most PPR points to running backs.
Sit of the Week
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders [DraftKings DFS Value: $7,900]
There's little chance most fantasy managers would consider sitting fantasy's third-ranked wideout from a year ago after using a first- or second-round pick on him. But there are legitimate concerns about how Adams will mesh with new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Broncos were 31st in PPR points allowed to wideouts in 2022.
Sleeper
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900]
Wilson's 2022 season was a disaster, and not having Jeudy or Tim Patrick to open the season isn't an ideal start. But the hope is Sean Payton's arrival will help Wilson play more like the star we saw in Seattle, and he gets to open his second season in Denver against a Raiders defense that gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
Here's one where it's a good idea to hope I'm wrong and Adams blows up in Week 1 against the Broncos, at which point it's time to sell. He is the wrong side of 30, and a big part of his production last season came on vertical passes. Vertical passes are not something that Garoppolo is known for doing especially well.
Stat to Know
6.9. That was Garoppolo's Intended Air Yards Per Attempt last year—a number that ranked 25th in the NFL. On the other hand, Derek Carr averaged 9.1 IAY/A in 2022, which was fourth in the league. Garoppolo is a fine fit for what Jakobi Meyers does as an underneath receiver. But Adams is another story.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Key Injuries
Know what's a nice way to start a section of this column? With a "key injuries" section that's blank. That's what we have here: No fantasy-relevant members of the New England Patriots or Philadelphia Eagles are in danger of missing Sunday's game at Gillette Stadium.
Start of the Week
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000]
This isn't an easy call. This is a game where you're either a must-start fantasy stalwart or a player facing an uphill matchup. But the Patriots were at least a marginally favorable fantasy matchup for tight ends last year, and New England will likely key in on taking away downfield passes to wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Sit of the Week
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, New England Patriots [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,800]
It's going to be tough sledding for the Patriots on the ground and through the air against Philly's defense Sunday, and it's not hard to imagine the Pats playing catch-up in the second half. But the Eagles' vaunted secondary doesn't give up much to opposing wide receivers—they were 25th in PPR points allowed to the position in 2022.
Sleeper
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,200]
Again, "sleepers" aren't easy to come by in this game, so we'll go with the least expensive of Philadelphia's three-headed ground game in Gainwell. The Patriots were sixth in the league against the run in 2022, but the Eagles have shown the ability to run on even great defenses. Gainwell spent much of the summer as the Eagles' nominal lead back too, if that helps.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
It's been quite the roller coaster of an offseason for Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who went from hype darling to persona non grata for some drafters after the team signed Ezekiel Elliott. This analyst still thinks Elliott is more a depth add than a real threat to Stevenson's workload, and a down game here could drop his asking price that much more.
Stat to Know
Eighty-four. It's the number of sacks and takeaways the Patriots amassed on the way to being fantasy's highest-scoring defense in 2023. That defense should be fantasy relevant again in 2023 and was drafted in most leagues as an every-week starter, but kicking things off with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' loaded offense is a rough way to start.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Start of the Week
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400]
With Wilson out, Mostert should see an uptick in workload early in the season. The 31-year-old quietly eclipsed 1,000 total yards last season, and he faces a Chargers run defense that allowed over 145 rushing yards a game on the ground and surrendered the eighth-most PPR points to running backs. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Sit of the Week
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,700]
This is admittedly a reach—frankly there aren't many offensive players on either of these teams who aren't at lease serviceable fantasy starts in Week 1. Of the bunch, though, Tagovailoa draws the roughest fantasy matchup. The Chargers were 22nd in fantasy points allowed to QBs last year, and that was without the services of star cornerback J.C. Jackson.
Sleeper
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,300]
With this week's fantasy landscape littered with banged-up big names, managers need lower-end and waiver-wire options who can serve as a one-week fill-in. Everett fits that bill. The Dolphins were third in fantasy points given up to tight ends in 2022, and the defense will be focused on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
Mostert may get off to a hot start this season, but while he does, the running back fantasy managers should be targeting is diminutive rookie De'Von Achane. At the very least, he could carve out a role on passing downs. And given Wilson and Mostert's respective injury histories, it's possible Achane could step into an even larger role as the season moves on.
Stat to Know
5.4: The average yards per carry of Mostert's career. Yes, he's had trouble staying on the field. And yes, he is the wrong side of 30. But his 465 carries aren't indicative of an aging back's wear-and-tear, and even at 31, he is one of the fastest running backs in the NFL. He has legit RB2 upside to start the season.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Key Injuries
The Los Angeles Rams will be without the services of their best offensive player Sunday after wide receiver Cooper Kupp was ruled out with a hamstring injury. However, despite breaking a bone in his wrist and having surgery last month, rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks is expected to make his NFL debut against the Rams.
Start of the Week
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200]
With Bobby Wagner back in Seattle, the Seahawks should be better against the run than the 2022 iteration that led the NFC in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Without Kupp, though, the Rams will likely lean more heavily on the ground game, and Akers eclipsed 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games to close the 2022 season.
Sit of the Week
Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,700]
The Rams are going to have to throw the ball at some point, and with Kupp sidelined, Jefferson becomes the team's de facto No. 1 wide receiver. But the Seahawks were a terrible fantasy matchup last year for WRs even before adding first-round pick Devon Witherspoon—only two teams allowed fewer fantasy points to the position.
Sleeper
Seattle Seahawks Defense [DraftKings DFS Value: $3,300]
At least part of the reason for the Rams ranking fourth in fantasy points allowed to defenses last year had to do with the absence of Matthew Stafford. But even with the signal-caller back, L.A. is short on passing-game weapons, and Seattle added pop up front in the offseason. The Seahawks are a fine Week 1 play for matchup streamers defensively.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
Given the talent exodus on the Rams defense this year, second-year running back Kenneth Walker III could be set for a strong 2023 debut. But if he does start hot, it may be time to start shopping him—the arrival of rookie Zack Charbonnet signals at best a committee is coming in Seattle, and an argument can be made that he is the more well-rounded talent.
Stat to Know
17.16. It's the number of PPR points per game the Seahawks allowed to the tight end position last season, the most in the NFL. Without Kupp, tight end Tyler Higbee could lead the Rams in targets Sunday. And if that's the case, he could make for another excellent alternative for fantasy managers dealing with injuries this week at tight end.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Key Injuries
When the first Sunday night affair of the 2023 season kicks off with a good old-fashioned NFC East brouhaha, it will do so with both teams at full strength for the most part, at least on offense. We've been waiting all year for Sunday night.
Start of the Week
Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000]
There aren't really any obvious must-starts in this game outside of guys like CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley. But with the Giants focusing defensively on Lamb, that should mean single coverage for Cooks in his first game in Dallas. We are talking about a receiver with six career 1,000-yard seasons, after all.
Sit of the Week
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800]
Thanks in large part to his 708 rushing yards, Jones had a career year in 2022, finishing as a top-12 fantasy option. However, in two meetings with a Cowboys team that surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, he didn't throw for 230 yards and managed just one total touchdown.
Sleeper
Parris Campbell, WR, New York Giants [DraftKings DFS Value $3,400]
The Giants' wideout corps isn't exactly imposing, but as camp and the preseason wore on, Campbell and Darius Slayton appeared to emerge as the top two targets at the position. With Campbell manning the slot and given his ability to do damage after the catch, we'll roll the dice on the 26-year-old as the best Week 1 lottery ticket of the bunch.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
Deuce Vaughn is a name that fantasy managers should be keeping an eye on—and potentially targeting early in the season. Tony Pollard is the clear No. 1 back in Dallas, but he has never handled a featured back's workload. At the least, he'll spell Pollard. But if Pollard were to go down, the rookie from Kansas State could become a fantasy difference-maker.
Stat to Know
2,860: Dak Prescott's passing yards in 12 games in 2022. It marked the second-lowest total in his career, and he also tied for the NFL lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in just 12 games. The Cowboys are loaded with offensive firepower, but none of that will matter if the maestro of the orchestra doesn't get back to playing at a high level.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Key Injuries
When the Aaron Rodgers era begins in New York Monday night, his offense will be at full strength. Running back Breece Hall (knee) and wide receiver Allen Lazard (shoulder) are on track to play. The Bills are in good shape offensively, which should make the final contest of Week 1 a good one.
Start of the Week
Dalvin Cook, RB, New York Jets [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900]
This isn't a game where points will be easy to come by. Outside big names such as Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson, there aren't many who stand out as excellent starts. With that said, the Bills showed last year they can be run on with at least some success, and while Hall will play, Cook should serve as the clear No. 1 back.
Sit of the Week
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200]
There's a ton of excitement surrounding the Jets in 2023, but Rodgers' first game with Gang Green is a lousy matchup. The Bills allowed less than 215 passing yards per game a year ago, and only two teams allowed fewer fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Rodgers is a mid-range QB2 in Week 1, but little more.
Sleeper
Allen Lazard, WR, New York Jets [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200]
Yes, Rodgers is a "sit" and Lazard is a "sleeper." I'm a complicated guy. The Bills are going to make a concerted effort to do two things: Take Garrett Wilson away from Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm with pressure. That could mean a lot of short, quick throws to his old buddy from Green Bay and a nice stat line for Lazard.
Trade Block Buy Low/Sell High
As mentioned, I expect Cook to be New York's clear lead back early in the season. But the farther into the 2023 campaign we get, the more that pendulum will swing back toward Hall. If Cook reels off a couple of good games early in the season, he's a prime "sell high" candidate, especially to the manager who also has Hall.
Stat to Know
Thirty-eight is the number of rushing touchdowns Bills quarterback Josh Allen has amassed over five NFL seasons. Those rushing scores have been a big boost to his fantasy value, but with a capable short-yardage back in Buffalo now in Damien Harris, it will be interesting to see if Sean McDermott scales back those goal-line plunges.
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Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter, @IDPSharks.