B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 2
September 7, 2023B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 2
After an underwhelming start in college football's dress rehearsal, B/R's Locks of the Week found its rhythm in Week 1.
A 6-3 showing is the kind of weekly performance we expect in these parts, and a hot start ultimately paved the way for a solid showing. For the year, our college football picks against the spread are now 8-5.
Although there are still a smattering of games with large point spreads, we're easing into our routine. And the Week 2 board has a slew of fascinating lines.
Before we get to this week's selections, however, we must first relive the good (and bad) from the week that was.
The Good: Fresno State (+4) at Purdue: We told you that the Bulldogs had a decent shot at pulling off an upset, and that's exactly what happened. It started off a little rocky, although Fresno State delivered a massive road win that was good for the ol' bank account.
The Bad: LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State: Well, that was... something. Although this bet looked favorable at times in the first half, it quickly spiraled out of control. Kudos to Florida State for looking like a real College Football Playoff threat. As for LSU? Woof.
With that, here are the Week 2 picks.
NC State (+7.5) vs. Notre Dame
At the moment, the Irish look like a force.
In two games this season, Notre Dame has outscored Navy and Tennessee State 98-6. Regardless of the competition, it's an impressive start.
But this is a slippery road game against a team we're sleeping on. Marcus Freeman's group had to travel to Ireland, come home and now must get on the road again to take on a solid team with an experienced quarterback.
Brennan Armstrong isn't as talented as Sam Hartman, but the transfer is still dangerous. In Week 1, he was particularly dangerous with his feet.
Although I expect Notre Dame to win, it will not come easy. NC State will be competitive at home.
Translation: The underdog covers.
UTSA (-13) vs. Texas State
While UTSA wasn't my worst loss of Week 1, the Roadrunners' defeat to Houston certainly didn't help. If you're thinking that we're simply doubling down on UTSA out of emotion, well, you would be incorrect.
This is a strategic play where the planets are aligning.
On the UTSA front, things couldn't have gone much worse. The 17-14 loss to Houston featured a slew of miscues, headlined by three interceptions from quarterback Frank Harris.
That is not who Harris is. After watching him find success for years, a sizable bounce back is reasonable to expect. Despite the turnovers, UTSA was still very much in that game.
Texas State did more than stay competitive. The Bobcats beat Baylor as nearly a four-touchdown underdog. While it was incredibly busy—and kudos to the brave souls who had them on the moneyline—it just doesn't feel duplicable.
This line has been climbing, and I got in before it rose to 13 points. I'm still comfortable with it at this number.
Texas Tech (+6.5) vs. Oregon
One team lost to Wyoming in Week 1. The other dropped 81 points.
Texas Tech, a team I liked quite a bit heading into the year, could not get out of Laramie unscathed. While it's a disappointing way to start the year, all hope is not lost.
With this point spread under a touchdown, the oddsmakers still have faith in the Red Raiders. Frankly, so do I.
Oregon had a much different opening game, dropping an 80-burger on Portland State despite its best efforts to slow things down. This team certainly has talent, starting with quarterback Bo Nix. The Ducks can score, and the defense has a chance to be one of the better units in the Pac-12.
But this is an odd road trip, and Texas Tech has an environment conducive to these types of games. The Red Raiders should have a much different effort this time out, and an upset would not surprise in the least.
Remember, it's a long season. Week 1 results sometimes lie.
Nebraska (+3) at Colorado
On the topic of Week 1 results lying, let's take Nebraska.
First, let's make something abundantly clear. Colorado and Deion Sanders deserve a mountain of credit and praise for their Week 1 win over TCU. That outcome was sensational, and it's hard to capture how much progress Colorado has made in one offseason.
When you take that larger-than-life result and throw in a Nebraska loss that felt very Nebraska-esque, you have a perfect storm. As such, the masses will head to the betting window to back the Buffaloes.
When this happens, you know the drill.
Lost in the Cornhuskers' disappointing Week 1 outcome was a tremendous performance by their defense. If not for a few crucial mistakes and turnovers, Nebraska would have beat Minnesota. (Again, we stated this a whole bunch lately.)
The buzz in Boulder is real, and the individual talents—starting with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and cornerback/wideout Travis Hunter—are exceptional. But Nebraska's style could give Colorado trouble, and this game should look and feel a lot different than what we witnessed on Saturday.
Purdue (+3) at Virginia Tech
A week after fading Purdue, we're on the Boilermakers once again.
Fresno State won as a small underdog in West Lafayette. Purdue will now hit the road to take on a Virginia Tech squad trying to find itself.
The logic here is pretty simple: I just don't trust the Hokies, and I haven't for some time. Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 36-17 in Week 1 as more than a two-touchdown favorite. The Hokies covered, although there's not a ton there to draw from.
For Purdue, this will be a much different assignment. While playing at Virginia Tech is never easy, this will be a different assignment. Fresno State was a strong offensive team. If the Purdue offense can find success—and it should behind the play of quarterback Hudson Card—I expect the outcome to be different.
We're backing Purdue, and we feel excellent about it.
Other Games on the Card
Auburn at Cal (Over 54)
Both teams had strong offensive performances in the opening week, although Auburn's feels like the most likely to translate. Assuming the Tigers handle the long road trip well, there's a chance this total could be shattered.
Mississippi State vs. Arizona (Over 60.5)
This could be a very fun game. Both teams are powered by capable quarterbacks, and both teams can score points. As long as Arizona can do its part, this game feels like it could ultimately wind up in the 70s.
Washington State (+6) vs. Wisconsin
If the opener is any indication, Wisconsin's offense might take some time to mesh. Although I love the Badgers' ultimate outlook, this is a tricky road trip early in the season. Wisconsin ultimately wins, although Wazzu keeps it close.
North Texas (-12.5) vs. FIU
North Texas let us down last week, although it won't happen again. FIU nearly lost to Maine last week, which doesn't translate well to a matchup like this. The Mean Green get back on track with a convincing win.